.. another 2 cents ..
.. wave 1 according to Elliott theory should not be agressive as a 3rd .. what we saw the last 3 days was expected to be wave 1 .. the problem is that if you look to any index chart , you see the 3rd as the shortest indicating more down side ... I heard about a 10 % healthy correction .. how could it possibly be if we already have fallen 5 % since highs and wave 1 is not even near completion .. a 4 is not in sight yet ... and more .. the slope of the drop is far more impressive .. look at spx daily chart and you'll only see this behavior in the middle of P1 (third of 3rd) .. not even the 3rd of P1 had this behavior in early stages .. there is no bounce since yesterday .. no entry point .. just some sideways squiggle .. seeing this as anything different is a suicidal bet .. bulls should do the best strategy and become bears .. skilled Elliott traders know how to change their bets... the talk of let's wait and see .. do you have any bullish count ? .. is waste of time .. the charts are telling the story and it's clear .. don't put yourself in front of a train full loaded, without brakes and out of control ..
.. wish luck to all followers ..
Hi Saboya.
ReplyDeleteMy 2 cents.
SPX - We're In A Secular Bear Market. 1040 Key Number
We're In A Secular Bear Market Like Japan.
Long term view - TOP 1150 -
If this is the Top and I believe it, when look this chart, we had last year a pullback of a BIG BEAR MARKET SECULAR. why??
Chart we have two indicators - EMA and RTS.
EMA if price close > EMA --> Bull Market
If price close < EMA --> Bearish
RTS give me confirmation Bull Market or Bear Mrket.
Beas until now neutral because price above EMA but RTS below yellow.
If price close montly below EMA change beas neutral long term to >> Bear Market.
If close this month below low of last month (1085.89) win momentum to test EMA 1040.
Chart here: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/S1rtWTHxeJI/AAAAAAAABes/FtzjXWm2Vbw/s1600-h/SPX+monthly+22012010.jpg
VIX - The End of the Beginning. Bears are back!
this is a 52% gain on the VIX (weekly). Wow! Bears are back!
Close this week above EMA200 (red) but below EMA55.
Need two consecutive closes above blue EMA (27.86)
will open door to visited 40 first target, possible extension to 45
Chart here: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/S1pPMimIpCI/AAAAAAAABek/iBqfAr8qE-E/s1600-h/vix+weekly+chart.jpg
DAX - Weekly - Top with two Bearish Signals
Dax have here a big problem. Bearish divergence with a new sell signal MACD. This is bad...very bad...
Can see last update Daily chart http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2010/01/dax-like-rocket-targets-around-corner.html
weekly chart here: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/S1o6BVriIxI/AAAAAAAABec/R9nv5tgkr0g/s1600-h/dax+weekly+21012010.png
ALERT Broke out of the channel, can started new downswing. Need confirmation close < 64300.
Below 64.300 ( daily close) expect 57.000 possible extension 55000.
Expect top between 69.700 and 72.180 (made that analysys at the end of 2009) >>>until now so far so good - High 71068 ** Click to zoom in. Cheers!!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/S1t0BP9t_DI/AAAAAAAABe8/WegfmXV8hsU/s1600-h/bovespa++daily+22012010.jpg
Big trades for all.
.. Fala Carlos ..
ReplyDelete.. concordo com tudo que vc postou .. eu esperava menos agressividade na largada .. ta horrivel .. o primeiro pullback onda 2 ta dificil saber onde vai ser .. so acredito depois de divergencia no diario .. esse mercado eh dificil .. ele continua caindo mesmo oversold ..
abbraxx