THOUGHTS ON THE BULLISH CASE => IBOV & BR20

IBOVESPA MEDIUM TERM CHART => IT'S REALLY HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THOSE TRENDLINES WILL BE BROKEN ..

SP500 => the bullish count

... the bullish count is possible ??? ... of course it is ... but what are the odds ??? .. the odds are low for many reasons .. the move that starts from lows looks corrective .. too many overlaps ... it can go a little bit higher .. but it doesn't have the right look for an impulse .. not even making a floor .. the overlaps suggest some kind of complex wave moving sideways that can make a little breakout or not ... but then a violent plunge ..

SP500 (alternate count)

SP500 (60 min chart) => primary count

.. this is the : WAVE C FAILURE IRREGULAR EXPANDED FLAT COUNT as you can see ... wave B is 1,76 x wave A .. the rule says the bound limit should be 1,618 fib retrace .. there is an 8% error .. in my judgement Elliott fib retracement has at least 10% tolerance since there was not enough time trading at those limit levels ... only spykes to that price territory .. Elliott Wave theory is not an exact science ..

.. the rule also says that wave C should equal wave A in price and that the time of wave C should be the time of wave A + time of wave B (wave C can also be longer in time, never shorter) .. those rules are perfectly accurate in the SP500 chart ..

.. NOTE : the [1], [2] .. 1,2 extension count is still valid .. for bears it doesn't make a difference since the outcome will be the same .. a strong downside move ..

.. the extension count is not my primary count because it doesn't fit other indexes that I usually look at .. example : the previous post => BR20 chart displays a perfect textbook 5 wave count for wave C .. it is not a wave 2 retracement .. I've learned that the count that best fits all indexes is the right count ..

.. nice weekend ..